Old dogs know old tricks

You would think that, after getting a shellacking that surprised no one outside the circle of beltway bloviators, that Richard Pombo would seek to run his current campaign in a new way. Fortunately for the voters of the 19th district, Pobmo is falling back on the same old issues that lost him the election in 2006 and building his war chest from the same old sources.

Let's sort through this in a logical manner. One of the complaints against Pombo was that he was too closely associated with Jack Abramoff and the sleazy deals surrounding Chinese criminal control of the Marianas Islands government. Often cited were the many trips to Marianas resorts taken by Abramoff associates, Republican Congressmen and their staffs. So, who is in the forefront of Pombo fundraising? None other than losing Colorado Republican Bob Schaffer. While Schaffer was in Congress, he earned the nickname "Sponge Bob" for soaking up Marianas perks like a sponge. Why anyone thinks that two losers equals one winner is beyond me.

Add to that, the theme of this fund=raising event, an attack on the Endangered Species Act by petroleum industry money. This is a return to a 19th Century Robber Baron thinking… well maybe a continuation of old ways that we no longer need in the 21st century. We might have learned a bit over the years. It is clear that the people who run some of these big companies have not, using easy promises of jobs for all in order to allow them to accumulate riches for a few. But more on that later%hellip; as te race heats up, so will the pace of posting.

Pombo Polls Poorly

Lisa Vorderbrueggen continues to recount that travails of "Rich" Pombo at the Contra Costa Times political blog. Lisa probably thought that she had enough of Pombo is 2006, but, like a bad penny, he just keeps trying to return.

The conclusions offered by the pollster are somewhat suspect, in that it was identified as a "push poll" and most of these are intended to elicit a specific response. According to the person who commissioned the poll... Jeff Denham's campaign manager... there was enough substance to justify the following conclusion.

Based on these survey findings, it is our opinion that former Congressman Richard Pombo is very unlikely to win the Republican Primary in the 19th District,” the memo said. “Further, if he were to win the primary election, it is our opinion that much of the Republican base would not stay with him and make Republicans have to spend significant money to keep this Republican Congressional seat in the Republican hands even with the very comfortable registration margin.

We have not yet seen much in the way of anti-Pombo money injected into this campaign from the organizations that helped defeat him before. Maybe they are taking a wait and see attitude on this primary campaign. However, you can be assured that, if Pombo were to pull a comeback and win the Republican primary, the checks would be written and TV / radio ads would flood the airways.

Dirty Dick back on Dirty Dozen List

Well, Richard Pombo has made it back on the League of Conservation Voters Dirty Dozen list, and he hasn't done anything yet. Their headline indicates a bit of disquiet about the fact that the Congressman who wanted to sell off parts of our National Parks is now in the running to represent Yosemite.

Just to cite one comment:

No California member of Congress has been more knee-jerk anti-environmental than Richard Pombo,” said California League of Conservation Voters CEO Warner Chabot. "There's no better candidate than Pombo for the Dirty Dozen list."

Now, for some in the 19th CD, having the LCV attacking Pombo might be a reason to vote FOR him. After all, Pombo is getting funded by Westlands Water District members and they have turned "enviro" into a curse and ESA into a road sign for target practice.

What the district really needs... like the Pombo's home 11th CD needed, was a Congressman who listened closely to all of his constituents and then applied common sense and knowledge rather than political expediency when they made their decisions. But listening was never a Pombo strength and his common sense and knowledge were about par for a college drop out.

Maybe his day has come... and passed.

I have just been reading Jeff Denham's web site. Now, it seems to me that the 19th CD is a bit crazy. Since Pombo jumped into the race with a big reservoir of Westlands cash, he did pick up a few endorsements. But by now, Jeff Denham has the endorsement of every County Supervisor in the 19th CD, or so it says on his web site.

That makes it sound like Pombo will have to run a tea bagger race, stirring up all those folks with fears of Denham actually voting for a tax increase. That would surprise me, though.

Is this going to be one of those races where the people rise up against the party leadership? Pombo seems to be taking to the air ways, but a lot of the quotes on his facebook page seem to come from the big companies (Land o' Lakes) or neighbors I never heard of.

Pombo, an old dog with no new tricks

Everything that I read about Rancher Richie's latest political adventure looks a lot like his 2006 run, with the exception that he does not have an opponent with the national name recognition of Pete McCloskey as a primary opponent. It was McCloskey who gave good Republican's permission to vote for Jerry McNerney rather than to return to Congress a demagogue who had never really represented the people of the district… or at least he never bothered to talk to that portion of his district (CA-11) in which I lived.

Now, we see him following the same path's, out trolling for money at the Western Indian Gaming Conference. This is typical Pombo from the old days, racking up political debts and knowing the favors that he will have to deliver in order to pay them off. However, this history shows that he did more collecting and little paying. Those tribal agencies who were willing to contribute to Rancher Richie should ask around before they open their checkbooks. Since that links to a series of posts that I did on the old Pombo Watch blog, I may have to put it back online... or at least to make those particular items available. Those who ignore history will live to repeat it.

Democrats Can Take Charge In CA-19 -- With Your Help!

Okay, so here's the deal. Every article to date about CA-19 has been full of the conventional wisdom about this district: It's Republican; it's a lock; Democrats need not apply.

And to reinforce this wisdom come the statistics (all pdf): Boxer lost in 2004 by nearly 13 points (to local favorite Bill Jones); Dianne Feinstein lost by less than 2% in 2006; Obama lost by 6 points to McCain in '08. So, according to the statistics, this is a seriously Republican district. You'll read it in all the articles -- CA-19 has a 6% Republican advantage in registration (Safe Republican).

But what the conventional wisdom won't tell you about CA-19 is this: Although the November 2008 voter registration numbers from Fresno County (the largest population center for CA-19) show a 163K-153K Republican advantage (nearly 2 1/2%) in registration and, just eight months ago, in the latest online report from the California SoS (May '09), that advantage was still around 8,000 or 2%, things are changing fast. You can see where the conventional wisdom might coming from -- historical data.

Here's the new reality. The California Democratic Party has targeted the Central Valley over the last year or so. And during that time, the Fresno Democratic Party has held numerous voter registration events -- as in "We're serious about this."

So where do we stand today? Well, here's the news that you won't read from the DC-centric media. According to the Fresno Registrar of Voters, as of last month, a mere 468 voters (or about 1/3%) separate the Democrats from the Republicans in voter registration. That's right. From an 8,000 voter difference to 468 in nine months' time.

Think this is too good to be true? Well, come out to help Fresno Democrats register voters next weekend. Here's the info:

• Volunteers will meet at 1304 East Olive Avenue in Fresno at 11:00 a.m., Saturday, Jan. 16
• Walk until we hit our goal (or until 5:00 p.m.)
• You can RSVP to James Williams at jamesdean19662000@yahoo.com.

This is NOT necessarily a Republican district -- especially if we work to lay the groundwork right now!

Water Pirates

We already know what Pombo will use as the centerpiece of his campaign. It will be Water and how the "enviros" are using the Endangered Species Act to keep farmers from earning a living. From Rancher Dick Pombo, it is a broken record from his failed 2006 campaign.

The real story is that the East Side farmers got 100% of their water allocations last year. It is the Westlands Water District that didn't and they are the ones using all of their media manipulation to spin a mythical tale of fish over man.

Before you swallow that swill, enjoy this video of the Water Pirates.