Okay, so here's the deal. Every article to date about CA-19 has been full of the conventional wisdom about this district: It's Republican; it's a lock; Democrats need not apply.
And to reinforce this wisdom come the statistics (all pdf): Boxer lost in 2004 by nearly 13 points (to local favorite Bill Jones); Dianne Feinstein lost by less than 2% in 2006; Obama lost by 6 points to McCain in '08. So, according to the statistics, this is a seriously Republican district. You'll read it in all the articles -- CA-19 has a 6% Republican advantage in registration (Safe Republican).
But what the conventional wisdom won't tell you about CA-19 is this: Although the November 2008 voter registration numbers from Fresno County (the largest population center for CA-19) show a 163K-153K Republican advantage (nearly 2 1/2%) in registration and, just eight months ago, in the latest online report from the California SoS (May '09), that advantage was still around 8,000 or 2%, things are changing fast. You can see where the conventional wisdom might coming from -- historical data.
Here's the new reality. The California Democratic Party has targeted the Central Valley over the last year or so. And during that time, the Fresno Democratic Party has held numerous voter registration events -- as in "We're serious about this."
So where do we stand today? Well, here's the news that you won't read from the DC-centric media. According to the Fresno Registrar of Voters, as of last month, a mere 468 voters (or about 1/3%) separate the Democrats from the Republicans in voter registration. That's right. From an 8,000 voter difference to 468 in nine months' time.
Think this is too good to be true? Well, come out to help Fresno Democrats register voters next weekend. Here's the info:
- Volunteers will meet at 1304 East Olive Avenue in Fresno at 11:00 a.m., Saturday, Jan. 16
- Walk until we hit our goal (or until 5:00 p.m.)
- You can RSVP to James Williams at firstname.lastname@example.org.
This is NOT necessarily a Republican district -- especially if we work to lay the groundwork right now!