More On McNerney/Pombo Polling

On Monday, Kos wrote about recent internal polling done by the McNerney campaign. Well, I’ve finally gotten a look at a slightly expanded version of this polling — let’s talk about the results. The survey of 400 likely voters, which was conducted September 28 through October 1, has a margin of error of 4.4%. This poll shows Pombo ahead by one point, 41-40%, well within the MoE. The results of an earlier internal poll conducted July 9-11 by McNerney are displayed along with these results [and shown in brackets] for ease of reference.

In the initial ballot, seven-term incumbent Pombo receives only 41% [43] of the vote to McNerney's 40% [33]. Pombo has lost ground from July when he was at 43%, while McNemey's vote is up from 33% in July.

After both candidates are given a positive introduction, McNerney moves firmly into the lead with 49% [43] support while Pombo drops to 39% [41].

President Bush's job performance rating is only 34% [37] (good or excellent) versus 64% [62] (just fair or poor) with a plurality (39%) [40] rating his job performance as poor.

Pombo's own job performance rating is almost as low as Bush's. Just 35% [38] rate Pombo's job performance as good or excellent versus 54% [54] who say it is just fair or poor. Furthermore, Pombo is viewed favorably by 41% [42] of the voters and unfavorably by 42%. These low ratings foreshadow a strong desire for change in the 11th District.

Pombo's growing vulnerability is reflected in his weak re-elect numbers. Just 32% (34) are ready to re-elect him. The remaining 68% [66] of the electorate would consider voting for someone else (23%) [27], vote to replace Pombo (31%) [27], or aren't sure (14%) [12].

Having finally seen more information to go with this poll, the thing that jumps out at me is how dramatically McNerney’s numbers have risen.

Consider this. Since the earlier poll, which was conducted July 9-11, McNerney’s performance has risen by 7%, while Pombo’s has dropped 2% — or to put it another way, McNerney has closed the gap from ten points to one point. And the change is even more dramatic when voters are given an introduction to both candidates — McNerney’s two-point lead in July expands to a 10-point lead in October.

What is particularly stunning about these results is that by the time this latest poll was taken, the NRCC had already spent $400,000 on ten anti-McNerney mail pieces and the Pombo campaign had been airing anti-McNerney radio spots. As of yesterday, the NRCC upped its spending by another $5,480 for phone banks and $20,805 for attack mailer number 14, bringing total NRCC independent expenditures in CA-11 to $553,005. DCCC, still zero. And yet Pombo has still lost two points and McNerney has picked up seven. Damn.

The results of this poll should be a wake-up call for every person who reads SNTP. The residents of CA-11 are fed up with Richard Pombo. And as Democratic volunteers fan out through the district letting people know about Jerry McNerney and his positive vision for change, voters are breaking to support McNerney. We are now coming down to the wire. Absentee ballots went out on Monday — some are even now being returned. And it’s just this simple — when we communicate Jerry McNerney’s message, it resonates.

Here’s the report back from one volunteer who walked last weekend:

The anti-Pombo sentiment was palpable… even several Republicans we spoke with were fed up with their Congressman. Once people learned more about Jerry's positions and background, they expressed even more enthusiasm about his campaign.

So here’s the drill. You can contact the McNerney campaign for precinct walking and phone banking details this weekend. On Saturday, they will be mounting precinct walks in Morgan Hill (with McNerney and Pete McCloskey in attendance), Tracy, Stockton, Tri-Valley (Pleasanton/Dublin/San Ramon/Danville), Lodi, Manteca and Brentwood. Sunday, they will be walking in the Tri-Valley, Tracy and Stockton. Phone banking is almost continuous, and if you contact the campaign, there will be evening precinct walking in the Tri-Valley. You can also call them at (925) 833-0643 or (209) 478-5961.

Additionally, the Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund will be walking precincts every weekday evening and on weekends. You can email them at DefeatPombo@gmail.com or call them at (925) 249-1615.

And, of course, there’s always ActBlue.

Tags: CA-11, Jerry McNerney, Richard Pombo, Defenders of Wildlife, Pombo In Their Pocket