McNerney Poll Shows Tight Race With Pombo

The McNerney campaign has released the results of an internal poll that they commissioned nearly three months ago, approximately one month after the primary. The poll of 500 likely voters was conducted by Lake Research Partners from July 9-11 and has a Margin of Error of +/- 4.4%.

With enough resources to communicate McNerney's strong messages, inform voters about Pombo's voting record, and drive home the potent contrast between McNerney's priorities and Richard Pombo's special interest agenda, this seat is entirely winnable.

• In the initial ballot, seven-term incumbent Pombo receives only 43% of the vote against McNerney. McNerney is in striking distance with 33% of the vote and 24% are undecided. Pombo remains solidly under 50% throughout the survey. After both candidates are given a positive introduction, McNerney pulls into a virtual tie with Pombo — 43% for McNerney to 41% for Pombo.



• Bush's job performance rating is only 37% (good or excellent) versus 62% (just fair or poor) with a plurality (40%) rating his job performance as poor.



• Pombo's own job performance rating is almost as low as Bush's. Just 38% rate Pombo's job rating as good or excellent versus 54% who say it is just fair or poor, for a net negative job performance rating (-16%). Furthermore, while Pombo is viewed favorably by 42% of the voters, he is viewed unfavorably by 42% (including 28% very unfavorably). These low ratings foreshadow a strong desire for change among California llth's voters.



• Pombo has certainly not sealed the deal on his reelection, as just 34% are ready to re-elect him. The remaining 66% of the electorate would consider voting for someone else (27%), vote to replace Pombo (27%), or aren't sure (12%).



• Roughly two-thirds of voters are opposed (including almost half who express intense opposition) to Pombo's support for privatizing Social Security, his votes on cutting benefits for troops and veterans, and his status as one of the "13 most corrupt members of Congress."

So. This poll explains a lot about the events of the last two months. The voters of CA-11 don’t like Richard Pombo. But most of them don’t know Jerry McNerney. When they learn about Jerry McNerney, they like him. Hence the push by the NRCC, which has conducted three of its own polls during August/September, to spend $250,000 $310,000 $348,000 over the last month trying to create a negative impression of Jerry McNerney among the voters of CA-11.

But the McNerney campaign is striking back. I just heard a McNerney radio ad today on a Bay Area station; you can listen to it here.

And if you’d like to see the television commercial the campaign has prepared, you can check it out here:




Whether it’s by mailer, radio ad, TV spot or massive canvassing efforts, it is absolutely critical that we get Jerry McNerney’s name and message in front of the voters of CA-11 over the next six weeks. So volunteer to canvass or phone bank this week and make a generous contribution to get the word out to the voters of CA-11. Let them know that they don't have to settle for a corrupt and despicable politician like Richard Pombo. Let them know that by voting for Jerry McNerney, they can send an honest, accountable leader to Washington who will fight for their interests not the special interests. Let them know they have a choice.

Tags: CA-11, Jerry McNerney, Richard Pombo, poll, polling, NRCC