The Return of Pombo? Unlikely

It's only been two weeks since McNerney's spectacular win over Pombo and already people are looking to 2008. Congressman-elect McNerney is getting situated in DC and learning the ropes. He grabbed a nice appointment to the Dem's steering and policy committee, and is angling for a seat on the Energy Committee, as well as the Transportation or Agriculture committees.

However, back in the 11th District, positioning for the 2008 race is taking place. Pombo himself has not ruled out another run, though it seems Annette wants him to get some work done around the house first. From SF Chronicle article Pombo weighs options in wake of stunning defeat:

The brash 45-year-old conservative, who's led a decadelong crusade to rewrite the nation's environmental laws, isn't sure what he'll do next. He's already getting job offers, but must wait because of ethics rules. He hopes to continue to push the agenda of property-rights groups. And he's not ruling out running to regain his congressional seat.

He's convinced that his successor, McNerney, will be ousted two years from now.

"There's no doubt," Pombo said. "We're already hearing guys are talking about running against him in the primary because they know in a different atmosphere the chances of him holding that district aren't that great. Because he's going to have to vote. Nobody would cover him before, who he was, but as the incumbent they will have to. He's going to be voting on things that the people in that district don't like."

He said there are several Republican mayors and state legislators in the district who would make good candidates. And he added, "I may consider running again for Congress. I really haven't made that decision, and I don't want to make that decision right now."

However, it seems the other Republican-pundits are not promoting another Pombo run. This prognosticator I quote here pretty much rules out "The Return of Pombo". From Election Projection:

California CD-11: Due to some pretty extensive corruption issues, incumbent Richard Pombo was beaten comfortably by Jerry McNerney. If the GOP can find a legitimate challenger, this seat will be ripe for the taking.

And from Red State "Way Back to Majority":

focussing [sic] on the House, specifically on the seats Republicans lost on November 7th, I am taking Scott Elliot's far more expert opinion on the issue. He estimates over at Election Projection that the Democrats that won these seats from Republicans are going to prove to be one-term wonders come 2008 - provided, of course, that the GOP does not mess things up for itself and create another Blue Wave.

# Texas CD-22
# Florida CD-16
# Kansas CD-2
# Kentucky CD-3
# Ohio CD-18
# Pennsylvania CD-4
# Pennsylvania CD-8
# Pennsylvania CD-10
# New York CD-19
# California CD-11

As they say, "it ain't over til it's over", but it seems in this District, it won't be over for a long time, with the Dem tide flowing into the Delta, then maybe ebbing, then flowing, etc. If nothing else, redistricting takes place after the 2010 census, so that will likely change the layout of the District.

But for now we can savor the good news that Pombo was beaten soundly. Even if a Republican were to win a future election in the District, it is unlikely the person would be anywhere near as extreme and ideological as Pombo.

Tags: CA-11, Jerry McNerney, Richard Pombo