Monday, October 02, 2006

Pombo Trails McNerney in New CA-11 Poll

Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund has just released the results of its latest Greenberg polling in CA-11. It’s important to note that this poll was taken very recently and reflects the results of the NRCC's barrage of anti-McNerney campaign literature. Even so, McNerney leads in the poll. Here is the Defenders announcement that was just sent out via email:
In an election cycle where voters are looking for change and incumbent Congressmen are in trouble across the country, that trend is clearly evident in California’s 11th Congressional district. Based on a recent survey conducted among likely voters in California’s 11th Congressional District, Republican Congressman Richard Pombo remains unpopular with voters and continues to be in real jeopardy of losing his seat. With less than six weeks left to go before Election Day and only two weeks before absentee ballots are mailed, Pombo continues to trail his Democratic opponent, Jerry McNerney, in a head-to-head vote. Furthermore, voters dislike Pombo personally and many believe he puts corporate interests over the public interests.

Despite being heavily outspent by Pombo and getting attacked in recent weeks, Jerry McNerney has successfully maintained his lead over Pombo since the last poll we conducted in May for Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund. Currently, McNerney garners the support of nearly half the electorate (48 percent) and continues to lead Pombo, who only attracts 46 percent of the vote. The race is essentially unchanged from our May survey, though there are now even fewer undecided voters (only 6 percent), leaving Pombo with very little room to increase his support.


The main reason voters are not supporting Pombo is because they fundamentally do not like him on a personal level. Virtually all voters in the district now know who he is (91 percent name identification). A plurality of all voters in the district have an unfavorable opinion of Pombo (45 percent unfavorable) whereas only a third (36 percent) have a favorable opinion of their Congressman. In addition, there are nearly twice as many voters who strongly dislike Pombo than who like him a lot (40 percent to 22 percent). Voters also have overwhelmingly negative opinions of Pombo on specific attributes:

  • A solid majority of voters believes Pombo “puts corporate interests over the people’s interests” (52 percent say this describes him well, with 35 percent saying it describes him very well, and 33 percent say it does not describe him well);

  • Voters also believe Pombo “is too close to lobbyists” (46 percent describes him well, 29 percent does not describe him well); and

  • Voters think Pombo “is too close to oil and gas companies” (43 percent well, 31 percent not well).

In sum, this poll shows that Pombo remains in poor standing with voters in his district. Voters in California’s 11th Congressional district do not like their Congressman. As a result, they continue to support the Democratic challenger over the incumbent. With time running out, Pombo is in real jeopardy of losing his seat.
I’ll attach more information and links on this poll as they become available.

5 Comments:

Anonymous Scott Chacon said...

For anyone curious, the overview is here:

http://www.gqrr.com/index.php?ID=1797

It should also be noted that the margin of error is 4.9%, which is pretty significant when the outcome separates the candidates by 2%. It also looks like Pombo gained a bit more than McNerney did from the undecideds.

I want McNerney to win too, but I'm always wary of polls commissioned by obviously interested parties. For perspective, the Cook Political Report moved this race into the 'Likely Republican' column from an earlier 'Leaning Republican' label, which means we're sliding.

I just hope we realize that although this looks positive, it's in fact well within the MoE and other analysts barely count this race as competitive, so don't let this tempt anyone to rest on your laurels yet. Get out there and knock on doors if you care!

12:52 PM, October 02, 2006  
Anonymous Tom Benigno said...

Polls are only for the people who make them. Don't believe everything you read. If you are a Mc Nerney supporter you let your heart tell what is right, that should be enough. The people who rely on polls play the stock market and read the horoscopes. Talk to real people who work and are be killed by this stupid war, and this administration. Mostly the high cost of living.

5:17 PM, October 03, 2006  
Anonymous trollpatrol said...

ummm...the move from leaning to likely before the polls hit...

that had to do more with the lack of dccc support then anything else.

9:42 PM, October 03, 2006  
Blogger babaloo said...

trollpatrol --
I suspect you're right in your analysis. Just today, Congressional Quarterly moved the CA-11 race from Republican Favored to Leans Republican, based on the following rationale:

"Usually, the heightened competitiveness of an election contest can be detected by the increased visibility of the challenger candidate. But sometimes, it is an unusually big investment by the incumbent party that’s the giveaway.

"That is the case in California’s Republican-leaning 11th District. A major flurry of late-campaign activity by national Republican strategists on behalf of seven-term GOP Rep. Richard W. Pombo — and a visit to the district Tuesday by President Bush to raise still more for the incumbent — are signs that victory is far from locked down for the Republicans. CQPolitics.com has changed its rating on the race to Leans Republican from Republican Favored."

10:40 PM, October 03, 2006  
Anonymous Tom Benigno said...

Babaloo:
That what you have explained is not a real scenario. That is just some perdiction by some poor misguided ass who supports Republicans. I am ashamed that you would even write some stupid Republican agenda. Pombo's running scared don't give him or his camp any edge. The congressional Quarterly is a Republican based bias report. Leans Republican what does that mean? When you go buy a steak you need some gristle to get a better taste. Leans does not mean better, it means less beef, we want more beef. That does not mean Pombo's lean "bullshit" Show me the beef and that beef is Jerry Mc Nerney. We want a win for Jerry Mc Nerney on evening of the of November 7th. We have the Abramoff issue, DeLay, Vols, Hayworth, Pombo, Foley, Hassert, corruption and a possible intern molestation, indictment, and you support a article that is pro Republican. Hell No.

Stay positive for the sake of the Democratic candidate Jerry Mc Nerney.

Tom Benigno

10:05 PM, October 04, 2006  

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