Late endorsements
The Morgan Hill Times has made its late in the cycle endorsements: McNerney and McCloskey. In previous years they had supported Pombo. However, this time, they have a new editor, Sheila Sanchez, and some new writers. Things change. The key statement is that "And replacing Pombo is important for District 11 and for the nation."
I don't know if this endorsement really means much. The circulation is only around 5,000. However, it is indicative of a change in the viewpoint of one segment of the district. As one neighbor told me: "The only time Pombo even shows up over here is to ask for votes."
Now, lets see how the Pombo Trolls can twist that last statement. One Morgan Hill business owner said that he has seen McCloskey over here during this campaign more often than he has seen Pombo since he first got elected. Tells you something about why McCloskey will carry Santa Clara County's small portion of the district. Well, that and the folks in Morgan Hill are still PO'd about the way that they were redistricted: CD 11 with Lodi and Manteca, State Senate District with Santa Maria and in no district with neighboring Gilroy. Long live Gerry Mander.
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posted by Wes @ 7:43 AM
22 Comments:
That's great that the Morgan Hill paper endorsed McCloskey and McNerney. It shows they have some sense as to the corruption and far right ideology embraced by Pombo is bad for voters, bad for the district, and just plain wrong.
However, the endorsement will not affect the ract that much -- the overwhelming bulk of voters are over in San Joaquin, Alameda, and Contra Costa counties.
I saw one of McCloskey's supporters with a sign today that said that Pombo eats meat. Is that some vague reference to his sexual preference? Because if it is, I'm bailing. I think this has gone too far, and now we're starting to eat our own. What's wrong with us?
oh no, the Morgan Hill Times endorsed. Who cares? Nobody reads it, nobody cares...and Sanchez is a demo shill.
Its easy for the jew hater to be more places because he doesn't have a job.
Yo youse still wit me in duh Inner Circle.
Rocky here. Looks like weez under attack from renegate ButteHoles from Camp ButtaPombO.
Yo Rickey! Here's yer chance to redeam yerself and do sumtin usefull fer duh guys here and maybe we let you in duh Inner Circle if you beat dese ButeWipers at dere own game. Time to fight fire wit fire, if you know what I mean.
Even duh meat eater ting is dumB wit a capitol B.
Rocky TKOed duh last moron, you get one of deze new guys, Mr VPO can get one, etc. Yo Mr .02 you in on dis one? Ms Delta?
Rocky out.
The standard thinking among political types is that if an incumbent with the stature of Pombo (i.e., seven terms and a committee chairman) gets less than 70 percent of the primary vote, he may face significant problems in the general election.
McCloskey has run a very adept campaign, maximizing free media and making good use of paid media. From my unscientific survey of neighborhoods in Danville and San Ramon today, McCloskey has as many, if not more, signs than Pombo. McCloskey also appears to be matching Pombo on the TV ads front, though I should note that ads for both candidates are rather cheap-looking and rather mundane.
As of right now, I'd predict that McCloskey will win 22-25 percent of the Republican vote, with Benigno getting 2-4 percent. Pombo barely gets above the 70 percent threshold, in large part because of the low primary turn-out (probably 36-39 percent of RVs).
interesting Rick. I was actually thinking McCloskey would get around 32 with beno getting 5 and Pombo 63. well lets pick some numbers on the other side. I think McNerney gets 55, Filson 40, thomas 5.
Well, I do read the Morgan Hill Times and I vote! The Morgan Hill Times endorsement is important because in November, when Pombo faces McNerney, the outcome may be decided by a thousand votes or less. The MHT is now on record as having cut its ties with Pombo and that will make a difference for many newcomers who have never heard of any of these candistaes. We have had several thousand new residents here in the past two years. Newspaper endorsements matter most to new folk in town. By the way, as far a signage is concerned, for the first three weeks in May, there were only McNerney signs and then just before the Memorial holiday, a large number of McCloskey signs popped up. Then a few Filson signs and now a smattering of Pombo signs. I think your estimates on the likely returns DISTRICT-WIDE are off base. I think McNerney will get over 60%, and Pombo will get under 60%. Pombo has nothing in terms of street organization and McNerney shines in that area. We'll see Tuesday night!
Mr. 2% of a buck again (and finally there's something to talk about without a tinfoil hat on)
1) I too am in the camp that thinks it's going to be Pombo vs McNerney in the fall (along with Evans/Novak et. al.), but
2) What's interesting to speculate about is not the way the votes break out by percentage within the party primaries, but rather (with apologies to Dan)
3) What the total vote count is for the following combos:
Righties: Pombo + Benigno
vs
Lefties: McCloskey + McNerney + Filson + Thomas
I'll gander a guess (now there's a phrase you don't hear often) that the Lefties will get 60% of the total votes cast, while the Righties will get 40% of the total votes cast, since a large enough number of Reps and DTCs will vote for McCloskey
4) The challenge will be for McNerney to retain as many of those McCloskey votes as possible, and get the attention of the voters who don't normally turn out for primaries and don't pay attention until after Labor Day
Sorry, Steverino -- the tribe has spoken.
$.02 out.
Yo Mr $.02.
Rocky here - finally a decent conservation on dis blot. Here's what Rocky tink:
McNerney: 55%
Pretty Boy: 42%
Thomas: 3%
ButtaPombO: 61%
Fightin Repug: 36%
BeanO: 3%
Rocky out.
This is Filson's race to lose. He has some big endorsements, more money, and most importantly the DCCC's backing. I've seen a fair number of Filson signs in Danville and San Ramon, whereas I have yet to see even one McNerney sign in these communities. Moreover, other than on this blog, I haven't seen anything that indicates that McNerney has substantial support in the community. That said, I'm still expecting a tight race.
Flison...50
McNerney...45
Thomas...4
Yeah, I took the overwhelming support of the delegates to the CA Dem Party from the district as a sign that McNerney lacks support within the community. Ditto the endorsements by the Alameda and San Joaquin-Calaveras Central Labor Councils.
God, I wouldn't even need to look at such a detailed and scientific method of assessing community support as a count of yard signs to know that McNerney lacks any sort of community support within the district.
It's my understanding that People for the American way just sent out notice to everyone in the 11th district to vote for McNerney on Tuesday. That might change the numbers a tad. I'm not sure how many people in the 11th they have on their email list, but it must be significant, or why would they bother.
Nice endorsement too. Picture and everything.
The Morgan Hill times endorsement, while it can be argued that it doesn't have much sway, wrote a convincing piece that ended with the line that Jerry has the best chance of beating Pombo in November.
I couldn't agree more.
Mr. 2% of a buck again (with a helpful gift)
"Rick, er Rob", here's a little something you can use as the back cover image of those T-shirts you'll be handing out to all 3 of the folks that will attend the Filson Victory Party tomorrow night in Tracy!
McNerney: 51%
Filson: 46%
Thomas: Why bother%
$.02 out.
Did the Filson campaign let their field director Samantha go?
I stopped getting emails from Samantha as of the 5/28 and the subsequent emails directed me to call Ashley Carrera (vroom vroom)?
Good one Matt...A small cadre of party activist plus two labor endorsements equals substantial community support.
As for the signs, they may seem trivial if all of the candidates have them up, but McNerney doesn't have any up in this part of the district. That was a bit surprising.
Finally, I noticed you didn't make a prediction. C'mon...Ante up
Rick,
I guess signs in median strips does equates support - since judging from the signs along Tassajara for water board those candidates must have so many supporters too!
Rick,
I'm not really one for predictions, but how about this:
If Filson wins, there will be tremendous pressure on the candidate to significantly alter his staff.
We know that Samantha is leaving even if Filson wins, and so there's going to be an opening right there for the DCCC to get someone with the DCCC stamp-of-approval into the Filson Campaign. I'd assume that the hiring of such a person would be Stage One of Operation Dump Kellar, but they might just be able to get rid of him in one fell swoop.
Rob Kellar has not only done a pretty poor job, he's also a lightning rod for a lot of anti-Filson animus at the grassroots. So it'd kill a couple birds with one stone if the DCCC could force him out of the campaign and replace him with someone up to the task of fighting Pombo. And lest anyone think that this prediction is predicated on pure antipathy (which I admittedly have in spades) let's remember that Kellar decided to start his Tallitsch-smear by calling someone who was a well-known McNerney supporter. So it wasn't exactly the most adept smear in the world. And he kind of forget the plausible deniability angle. So anyway, my prediction is that Filson's win would mean that Kellar faces a night of long knives.
Colin Bishopp is probably safe if Filson wins unless he allies himself too strongly with Kellar. But why would he do that? As long as the DCCC folks know that Filson's fundraising problems weren't Bishopp's fault, he's set. And since Samantha's leaving, I give you three guesses who he'll blame, and the first two don't count.
I also have another prediction. No matter who wins, I won't be as involved with this race as I had thought I would be. I just took a campaign job in Oakland, so my outside political activities will have to diminish significantly. You might have noticed that I haven't really been around that much recently. My absence is only going to be more marked.
But I will do my best to recruit new bloggers to this site. After the primary is over, the tone of this blog will change a lot as everyone starts finally focusing on Pombo. So there will be more policy discussion, more Pombo trolls (Hi there GOP Spy), and since people will be bored by the policy discussion, there will be more speculation about who the various anonimi are.
Anyway, not exactly the predictions you were expecting, but I hope you enjoy them nonetheless.
Yo Matt.
Rocky here. Dis is anudder good discussion. Rocky keep tellin Adrian dis blot on duh instanet keeps gettin better and better. Youse guys teachin me all about politics, which ain't all dat unlike boxin if you ask Rocky. Its all about duh drama of duh fight, ain't it?
Now all dis speculation about Rickey is fine and dandy as long as Pretty Boy wins, but Rocky wanna know what Rickey's gonna do if Filson loses?
Yo Rickey! You gotta day job? Just when you started to say sum less den dumB tings and just when we got riff raff comin in on dis blot dats makin you look good and now you gonna leave us?
Whats up wit dat? Yer invited to join us over at Team McNerney, we want yer help, and Rocky mean dat.
Rocky out. Go McNerney! And a tip of Rocky's hat to duh Fightin Repuglican.
Yo Rocky, I sees you ben busy in Vegas. What's wid not invitin' moi? I had to read it in the papers. But, hey, I knows you got to schomooze with Bruce and that gang of bigshots.
Sunofabitch, 60 years! Happy Boithday to youse from all of us guys out here. We luv ya! Can't wait for Rocky VI:
Sylvester Stallone turns 60 in Las Vegas Mon Jun 5, 9:52 AM ET
It was a Hollywood — and a Planet Hollywood — reunion in Las Vegas Sunday night as Sylvester Stallone celebrated his 60th birthday.
The "Rocky" and "Rambo" star was joined by fellow Planet Hollywood founders Bruce Willis and California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger for the bash at Stallone's soon-to-open Planet Hollywood Resort and Casino.
Stallone's wife Jennifer threw the party, which included disco dancing and a birthday serenade from Tom Jones.
Other celebrities in attendance included John Travolta and wife Kelly Preston, David Spade and James Caan.
Stallone is scheduled to dust off both the "Rocky" and "Rambo" franchises soon.
He is writing and directing "Rocky Balboa," the sixth "Rocky" film, slated for a Christmas release. After that he is scheduled to play Vietnam vet John Rambo once more in "Rambo IV," tentatively scheduled for a 2007 release. The franchise began with "First Blood" in 1982.
Yo Mr VPO!
Rocky here. Yeah, its true. Yers Truly toined friggin 60 yesterday, but at foist I didn't wanna say nuttin cuz I wuz feelin old but den Adrian sez to me, she sez, "Rocky honey, I still love you. And look at the Fightin Repug, he's 78 and still stinging like a Modesto Bee."
Yeah, I hit duh big six-0 and even our friggin turtle is now 34. You should see him dese days - he's as big as ButtaPombO's fat ugly head, consumin a whole friggin head of lettuce every day.
Anyways, I regress. Tanks fer pluggin my movie.
Rocky out.
What in the hell is this about? Ms. Sanchez endorseing Mc Nerney and Mc Closkey. She was sending out questions the day before the election, she knew what she was looking for . She even asked me to resend my answers to the questions I answered about 10 days before the election, her statement was we are thinking about who to endorse the day before the election. What a bullshit community, Ben Gilmore had already told her who to indorse. The Morgan Hill times and that whole gang, don't know what end is up. Most of the votes came from the San Joaquin valley. You did get that right.
Tom Benigno I sorry Mike Moffett.
How dare you asses to emply that I would only get 3 and 5 % of the votes. I received 13,000 votes against Pombo in 2002 to his 45,000. How did you expect me to get more votes when the dam Republicn party killed me for running against Pombo. I said he was corrupt in 2002, and proved it in 2006. The only good Republicans are those who voted for me. what a bunch of hypocrites, the Republicans are. Sorry folks, until you can prove me wrong that's the way it stays.
Tom Benigno
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