Ensign Rumored to Be Reconsidering Her Candidacy

Those who read the comment sections of the blog might have noticed the following comment to the last entry:

Anonymous said...
There is an email going around indicating that Margee Ensign has cancelled her Blackhawk fundraiser and is reconsidering her candidacy. (?!)

12:57 PM, December 09, 2005

I’ve spoken with multiple sources about this and can confirm that Ensign has cancelled the Blackhawk fundraiser.  Other than that it looks like the rumors are pretty credible, at least insofar as it looks like Ensign is seriously “reconsidering her candidacy.”  Whether she’ll ultimately decide to continue running or not is still up in the air.  Or at least, I have no confirmation one way or the other about that.

Everyone I’ve spoken to about this, whether they know much about Ensign or not, has speculated that this might be due to the accelerated pace of her candidacy.  Babaloo, one of my wonderful co-authors, said it best:

You know, just idly speculating, coming so quickly on the heels of her announcement, it seems like the only reason for her to be reconsidering her candidacy at this point is if she is facing pressure from UOP.  Otherwise, there just is no reason not to go ahead and see how it plays out.  And perhaps, if she is in some sort of negotiation with the university over her status, she truly doesn't know if she will be continuing or not.  But it's my guess that she's absolutely not willing to give up her job for a run at this point.  Just a feeling.

For those who don’t quite get the connection, Ensign has said that announcing her candidacy would force her to step down as dean at the University of the Pacific (UOP).  From this Stockton Record article it’s pretty clear she was hoping to push that date until March, which is when she has to return her papers to get on the ballot.  It reads in part:

Ensign will keep her job as dean of UOP's School of International Studies until March, when she'll file her last set of papers to challenge Pombo. She will remain a professor and will take a leave of absence for the campaign  

I bet this assertion came from Ensign based on what she was expecting or hoping to happen.  It’s perfectly possible that the UOP administration thought differently and demanded that she step down as dean now, not in March.  Like Babaloo I’m inclined to think that if it came down to her job and this race for Congress, she’s choose her job.    

Again, this is just speculation.  Ensign has not returned any e-mails seeking a comment about this, and I imagine I won’t be the first person she tells.  So we might have to go to be tonight kiddies wondering what’s up.  Such is life I suppose.

The other interesting side to this is the question about how this will affect the race if it’s true.  My take is that Ensign’s withdrawal would help McNerney more than Filson.  I suppose it depends upon what prompted Ensign’s withdrawal (again, we’re speaking hypothetically here) and who Ensign would endorse, if anyone.  I’m not sure how likely this is, but if Ensign were to pull out and endorse McNerney, it would be a huge boost for his candidacy.  It would help consolidate McNerney’s claim to be the grassroots candidate.  Filson would also be aided by an Ensign endorsement, but since his campaign is less oriented towards the grassroots, the endorsement would be somewhat less useful for him (although it would deny McNerney the boost I mentioned earlier).

For her part, Ensign has been able to engage and energize a segment of the population not otherwise attracted to McNerney or Filson.  This means that even if she pulls out, again we’re talking about if at this point, she still could play a major role in the anti-Pombo efforts.  I hope that whatever happens, Ensign stays committed to fighting Pombo in one way or another.  We need her energy and passion in this race.  And we need the energy and passion of her supporters.  So here’s to hoping that she will stay committed to fighting Pombo, even if she ultimately decides not to run against him.